今年年末，中国的弹道导弹核潜艇可能进行首次威慑巡逻。这将会给太平洋地区的力量平衡带来什么改变？美国网友：你认为他们在制造了太空站和月球机器人之后还不能造出来飞机引擎？因为他们的经济规模跟美国一样大， 他们能制造和生产美国制造的一切。 他们的坦克， 导弹和潜水艇是钱能买到的最好的武器之一， 国际军火市场上的人都知道。
Reality Check ? 3 days ago
Robert Farley does not specialize in military strategy, as he spends most of his time in commerce.... Something peaceful.
Robert Farley并不精于军事战略，因为他把大多数时间花在商业上……一种和平的东西。
The ground silos are vulnerable to precision strikes, even though they are fortified. So mobile launchers are optimal, the operators can still enjoy life to certain extend. Some argue that bombers can take them out preemptively, but not as easily. Both Russia and China position their roaming TEL trucks further inland. It would be impossible to take all of them out at once, or within a few minutes. Not even with ICBMs, because of the early warning systems.
地面发射井面对精确打击时非常脆弱，尽管它们都进行了防御加强。所以移动式发射器是最好的，操作员仍然可以享受某种程度的生活。有人认为轰炸机可以先发制人地消灭它们，但这并不容易。俄罗斯和中国都将他们的移动导弹发射车部署在非常内陆的地方。根本不可能全部立即消灭，或几分钟内消灭。用洲际导弹也不行，因为有前期预警系统。
The most important thing that amateurs tend to ignore, is nobody can deal with both Russia and China at the same time, or in tandem.
军迷们容易忽略的最重要的事情，就是谁也没法同时地或相继地对付俄罗斯和中国，
Initiating preemptive strikes among the top 3 is equivalent to suicide, less so for France and UK. If you want to do it to those less capable ones, Iran, etc., preemptive strikes can be carried out at ease, except for the political reasons.
三强国之间发动先发制人的攻击等同于自杀，对于法国和英国来说情况弱一些。如果你想对那些逊色些的国家下手，例如伊朗等国，先发制人打击就容易实施，如果不考虑政治原因的话。
Why not promote peace instead?
为何不转而提倡和平呢？
AlexJW ? 3 days ago
The CCP can't build decent jet engines, yet it's going to have high-quality subs? Get the popcorn ready.
中共还没法制造优秀的喷气式引擎，就要有高档潜艇了？准备爆米花。
But let me not leave China out of this hatchet piece. Does China boast too much over its capabilities? Curiously enough, the answer is yes and no. A lot of the hype surrounding Chinese capabilities comes courtesy of American think tanks. Certainly many - and by that I mean almost all of them - Chinese netizens tend to crow about weapons in development that will kill this or kill that... as if a single non-nuclear missile really would take out all of Guam. Chinese weapons are great, they're the best, and blah, blah, blah... All the while they ignore the fact that Chinese engines tend to be the big Achilles heel of every domestic weapons platform they have. From tanks to ships to jets, China has the hardest time making reliable powerful engines.
我也不会再这篇喷文里面忘了中国。中国太夸大它的实力了吗？有趣的是，答案同时是“是”和“否”。围绕中国实力的大量宣传都来自美国智囊。当然也有很多——我的意思是其中大多数——中国网民喜欢嚷嚷他们开发中的武器能秒这个秒那个……仿佛一枚常规导弹就能炸掉整个关岛，中国武器好，最好，云云……但是他们忽视了这样一个事实：中国的发动机是他们所有国产武器平台的巨大阿基里斯之踵。从坦克到舰船到飞机，中国很难制造可靠的高性能引擎。
如果中国真的那么自信，那我认为美军最近在南海进行自由航行时中国不会只派遣两艘军舰尾随。当然，让局势变得更紧张并不符合中国利益，但是对美国采取了更加坚决的立场表明了中国拥有更多的力量来支持自己。
我赞同你剩余的观点，敲响警钟的人中大部分都是美国智库，他们这么做极有可能是为了继续浪费钱财在失败的项目上，比如F-35和LCS。
就引擎而言，只有涡轮风扇存在问题。据我所知，中国的海军和车辆发动机并不存在多大问题。
TDog Justanotherviewer ? 20 hours ago
If I recall correctly, their naval engines are somewhat out of date. They're serviceable, but not the most modern ones out there and they lack reliable nuclear power plants for their naval vessels, which makes long endurance trips somewhat more complicated than they have to be.
如果我没记错的话，他们的海军引擎某种程度上也是过时的。是还可以用，但不是最现代的，他们的海军舰艇缺乏可靠的核动力装置，所以让长途旅行变得更加复杂了。
Patrick AlexJW ? 2 days ago
Do you believe they cant build jet engine after they have built space station and moon robot? Since their economy is as big as US, they can build and make anything that US can make. Their tanks, missiles and submarine is among one of the best money can buy, everybody in global arm market knows it
你认为他们在制造了太空站和月球机器人之后还不能造出来飞机引擎？因为他们的经济规模跟美国一样大， 他们能制造和生产美国制造的一切。 他们的坦克， 导弹和潜水艇是钱能买到的最好的武器之一， 国际军火市场上的人都知道
SJMWilco Patrick ? 2 days ago
all of the technology you mention was either stolen from the US or purchased second hand from russia. their aircraft are second rate, their space technology 40 years old and no, the international arms markets are not impressed.
所有你提及的技术都是从美国偷窃而来或者是从俄国买来的二手货。 他们的飞机是次货， 太空技术是四十年前的。 在国际军火市场上没有什么影响
Patrick SJMWilco ? 2 days ago
Where do you think US get their rocket program from? you are right, stolen from German scientists. Last time I checked, US is incapable of sending man into space for decades, so you can stop bragging about "i was once strong and prime player in my high school football team". As for international arm market's impression for the Chinese weapons, Chinese is the third largest exporter, which means people from all over the world buy Chinese tanks, ships and missiles, one reason people choose them is these weapon beat US by half or one third of the price for same or similar performance, so i guess i will only trust the stats :)
你认为美国从哪儿搞来的火箭技术？ 没错儿， 从德国科学家那儿偷来的。 我所看到的是， 美国十几年来一直没有能力把宇航员送入太空。 所以你可以停止吹嘘“我曾经是高中球队里强壮的首发队员”了。 至于中国武器对国际军火市场的影响，中国是世界第三大军火出口国， 这意味着来自全世界的人都在买中国的坦克，军舰和导弹。 人们选择中国武器的一个原因是这些武器的价格只有同样或近似性能的美国武器的价格的一半或三分之一， 所以我认为我只会信任这些数据。
