While ISIS is the threat that keeps Washington policymakers up at night, it’s the rise of China that has international relations theorists in a panic. Graham Allison argues persuasively that China’s rise portends a classic Thucydides Trap. His research shows that in twelve of the last sixteen cases over the past five hundred years, when a rising power challenged an established one, the result was war. John Mearsheimer, somewhat more bluntly, warns that “China cannot rise peacefully.” It’s an impending great power clash that makes the threat from ISIS look like child’s play.

虽然ISIS的威胁让华盛顿的决策者们在晚上睡不着觉，但是是中国的崛起，在国际关系理论界中引起恐慌。埃里森辩称，中国的崛起预示着一个经典的“修昔底德陷阱”。他的研究表明在过去五百年中，在最近的十六起事件中，有十二个是，当一个不断上升的权力向一个稳定的权力挑战，结果是战争。约翰米尔斯海默，更直言，警告说，“中国不可能和平崛起。”这是一个即将到来的大国冲突，使得ISIS的威胁看起来像儿戏。

But China threatens the United States only insofar as America insists on being the dominant power in China’s backyard, a policy that actually contributes very little to U.S. security. If we abandon our strategy of primacy, the risk of a clash will shrink away. If we try to contain China’s rise, on the other hand, these predictions of doom may prove right.

但是只有在美国坚持成为中国后院的主宰力量的情况下中国才会威胁到美国，美国所采取的政策实际上无益于美国自身的安全。如果我们放弃我们的战略，这一冲突的风险会消失。如果我们试图遏制中国的崛起，另一方面，这些阴暗的预测就可能被证明是正确的

Zephon ? 4 hours ago
Thank you John Glaser for the common sense that seems beyond the thinking of the Beltway - often stuck in Cold War thinking that was not even appropriate 90 years ago when the ideation of the containment of China began.
We have enough problems at home. And spending over $500 billion a year of taxpayer dollars containing the spread of socialism is sickening to the average American who is increasing in despair.

感谢John Glaser分享这些好像超出比华盛顿方面考虑的范围的常识。 华盛顿经常陷入冷战思维，像在90年代牵制中国发展
我们自己已经有很多的问题了。我们每年花费5000亿美元来遏制社会主义的扩散，这让渐渐陷入绝望的美国人民感到恶心。

Dan H Serge Krieger ? an hour ago
Sooner or later russia will have to give Crimea back to the Ukraine or it faces sanctions forever. If russia and china want to expand its current borders both their economies will crash and you'll revert back to communism.

早晚俄罗斯要把克里米亚还给乌克兰要么就接受永久制裁。如果俄罗斯和中国想推进他们目前的国境线，这两个二货的经济都会崩塌，然后你会再次回归到共产主义。

David W ? 4 hours ago
While these all sound logical in theory, U.S. does not yet have the imperative to retrench. That is to say, U.S. still possesses an overwhelming military power, a dominant dollar, and a preeminent economy.
All of these premises may change in the next decade.
1) Sino-American arm race will inflate weapon prices, and hence reduce military size, till the day U.S. finds out that She cannot be everywhere at the same time.
2) Globalization of Euro and RMB will push dollar into a proper position commensurate of US economy's current weight, not its weight in 1950s or 1970s.
3) Greater R&D investment by China, currently only second to US and rapidly growing, will transform Chinese economy into something more similar to that of US. Japanese products used to represent poor quality, too. Things change.

这些话理论上很合逻辑。美国现在并没有迫切的缩减开支。换句话说，美国现在仍然占据着压倒性优势的军事力量，强势货币美元，首屈一指的经济体。
所有这些前提在今后十年可能会有所改变。
1)中美的军事竞赛抬高武器价格，因此降低军事规模，知道有一天美国发现自己不能同时在世界上无孔不入刷存在感。
2）欧元和人民币的国际化将把美元拉到与美国经济流通比重相当的合适位置，比重不会高于二十世纪五十年代和七十年代的规模。
3）当前落后于美国处于第二位但快速增长着的更大的中国所投资的研发活动，也将使中国经济摆脱低质量形象，类似于美国日本产品曾经被打过的标签一样。事情在改变。

Serge Krieger RT Myths Debunked ? 5 hours ago
Mind your own business. You will live longer.

各人请自扫门前雪。你将更长寿。