加入SDR之后会导致很多资产，转为持有人民币资产。这个包括各国央行至少1000亿美元的额度，再加上非央行的金融机构和其他企业个人。那么这个转持人民币的动作，会带来人民币的升值。这和人民币实际价值过高，需要下跌，这样就形成了一个对冲，那么可能就导致人民币保持原来价值，不会下跌。现在因为美国阻止，导致了这部分人民币需求没有了，那么按照市场情况，人民币下跌，是符合市场经济ABC的，呵呵。
市场经济，愿赌服输！
（人民币贬值会不会导致资本流出，进而带来资产价格下跌呢？）
很难说，因为你考虑全球是一个流动性比较好的市场，去年不少资金流入到美国房地产了。我这里有一个美国房地产协会的报告，找出来给大家看看：
Greetings from The Oberoi Team at INTERO
The world is getting smaller and the US is getting more global,each and every year. That’s a fact that all of us can observeroutinely in our daily lives. At work, more and more of our friendscome from another land, another culture. On vacation in a USresort, whether by the ocean, in the mountains or in the desert,you hear all kinds of languages being spoken. Same scene in anupscale shopping center. Look around you. The US, more than ever,is a microcosm of the entire world.
Not only is the foreigners’ share of the total dollar salesvolume climbing steadily, but the lion’s share of their purchasestends to be at the high-end. That’s where it is most visible andwhere it has the most impact. As we said time and again in thiscolumn, these facts have a heck of a lot to do with many marketsstabilizing, or even thriving, over the last three years.
As it does every year since 2009, the National Association ofRealtors (NAR) conducted an online survey of roughly 200,000Realtors, through the end of April 2015, to analyze with amagnifying glass the profile of international clients, whethernon-resident foreigners or recent immigrants who have been in thecountry less than 2 years. I propose to give you here& now the main findings of this captivating NARstudy. Be ready for a few surprises.
Over the 12 months referred to above, 209,000 houses have beenbought by foreigners.
These transactions represent an aggregate dollar volume of$104Billion (13% more than the year before), about 8% of the totalexisting home sales in the US.
The average purchase price of international buyers, which standsat $500k, is nearly double that of a domestic buyer ($256k).
Out of the 172,850 Ultra-High Net-Worth Individuals (accordingto Knight Frank 2015 Wealth Report), 35% are from Europe (UK,Germany, France, Italy, etc.), 26% from North America (90% of themin the US) and 24.5% from Asia (China, Japan, Hong Kong, Singapore,etc.).
US real estate became significantly more expensive over the 12months period due, in part, to the rising value of the dollarrelative to other currencies. The dollar gained 30% on the euro,19% on the Canadian dollar and 16.5% on the British pound.
Four countries (out of roughly 200 in this world) accounted for47% of all purchases made by foreigners: China, Canada, India andMexico.
For the 1st time, Chinese buyers exceeded all otherinternational buyers, both in terms of unit sales and dollarvolume, with $28.6Billion worth of property.
Following are Canada ($11.2B), India ($7.9B) and Mexico($4.9B).
50% of the sales to foreigners were concentrated in 4 states:Florida (21%), California (16%), Texas (8%) and Arizona (5%).Proximity to the home country, relatives, job and educationalopportunities & climate are the main reasons forthe choice of location.
35% of the foreigners buying in Florida come from Latin America.57% of those buying in California come from Asia. 41% of theinternational clients purchasing in Texas come from Latin America.46% of those buying in Arizona come from Canada.
When you look at the average price of a 120 square meter condo(not houses) across the globe, it is obvious that US prices arevery attractive compared to many other world cities. According toGlobal Property Resource, Paris did lead the pack of “mostexpensive cities” at $4,143,720 (based on a May 29 download of theglobal data).
In comparison, New York stands at $1,623,480, SanFrancisco-Oakland-Fremont at $622,400, Los Angeles-Long Beach-SantaAna at $375,800, Boston-Cambridge-Quincy at $331,000, NewYork-Wayne-White Plains at 270,100, Austin-Round Rock at $214,400,Chicago-Naperville-Joliet at $163,800 and Miami-FortLauderdale-Miami Beach at $149,900.
The bulk of sales to international clients are cash purchases(55%), compared to about a fourth of all sales of existing homes inthe country.
Chinese buyers are clearly buying more than any other foreignersor domestic buyers at the high-end. The average home price forChinese buyers is $831,800. This is to be compared to $455,600 fromUK clients, $460,200 from Indian buyers, $380,300 from Canadians,and $274,800 from Mexican clients.
The volume of purchases from China (including Hong Kong& Taiwan), at $28.6Billions, is 4 times what it wasonly 4 years ago, in 2011.
The percentage of Realtors surveyed who reported working withinternational clients over the 12 months period increased by 7%over the previous year.
The market, yes, it is changing! Feel free to contact me at408.771.4088 if you can think of anyone in your circle who coulduse my professional advice on buying/selling real estate. Also,please let me know if there is anything I can do to help you withyour professional/personal goals.
Thanks for reading. -Eddie Oberoi
这个报告，是今年4月份的时候做的。就是在A股大跌之前，就是从去年4月份－今年4月份，这个1年中，中国人在美国买了286亿美元的房屋，是外国人排名第一，平均房价是83万美元。排第二的英国人，买的平均房价是45万美元。
那么你考虑资金外流的话，其实A股大跌之后，加上人民币贬值，那么美国的房地产应该更贵了。而中国的房地产，对国人还是对老外来说，都是便宜了。
但是考虑到，这个世界上，有聪明钱和傻钱之分。那么傻钱是高位站岗的，所以你可以看到聪明钱，其实是应该到中国来，傻钱才会去美国。所以要看这个对冲的结果了。
按照以前的数据，等真的美联储开始加息了，美元会走低。但是有加息预期，和刚开始加，美元会走高。
（井大，人民币贬值，全球股市都是绿的。）
正常啊。
（刚刚看了这篇文章：高善文：央行这下玩大了。作者似乎认为动汇率不太妥当，风险高。）
连这个贬值的动作都看不出来，还好意思给人家做顾问呢。贬值是意料之中，就是等SDR结果出来。
